on vaccines

a briefing document

Index
on the reliability of vaccines
treatment risks and benefits
cervical cancer vaccines, cervarix and gardasil
on human papillomavirus

on the reliability of vaccines

the reality of the new aids vaccination claims, this is an interesting model for some problems of medical trials

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“In the data itself, the real margin of success was razor-thin: 23 Thais out of 16,395.

“That is, three years after getting the vaccine or a placebo, 74 in the placebo arm of the trial became infected while only 51 in the vaccine arm did.

“Bloggers with a taste for biostatistics — and one rival AIDS vaccine specialist who declined to be quoted — said it would take only a handful more infected Thais in the vaccine column to shift the results from “statistically significant” to meaningless. Even one more would have weakened the data enough to make headlines saying “One Quarter Protected” more likely, given the way journalists round off numbers.

“Which is to say: something as simple as a couple of broken condoms could have altered the conclusions of the trial.

“Moreover, even the experts overseeing it — the United States Army, the National Institutes of Health and Thailand’s health ministry — could not say why blending two experimental vaccines that had previously failed had suddenly worked. Or sort of worked.”
—
“The next scientific step is obvious. Any time researchers declare a miracle — cold fusion, stem-cell cloning — the first test is whether a rival laboratory can reproduce the results. But this trial defies reproduction: it took six years and $105 million of U.S. taxpayers’ money. And there aren’t many Thailands in the world — countries that have AIDS circulating widely, but where the health care system is so good and the population so dependable that 90 percent of patients can stick with a study for six years.”

One factor not covered in this report for contagious diseases is that the really critical number is one (1). If every infected person infects more than one other person on average, the disease will spread. If the number is less than one, it will eventually slow down and go away. Thus even a small reductio in infections could stop a disease.

Aids does not spread very easily to men. I have seen figures of around 200 goes (!) among heterosexuals, though females are much more vulnerable. For the moment, condoms and self gratification may be safer options ☺

treatment risks and benefits

All treatments have dangers. The relevant calculation is between risks - in the case of vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV, a known catalyst for cervical cancer), risks obviously favour vaccination.

The uneducated claims concerning Lyme’s Disease are also false. Lyme’s Disease is suspected of possible involvement in autoimmune disease. It is also a sneaky and can be very dangerous disease. It can cause very long- term damage by itself. (Lyme’s Disease is related to syphilis, a long time-frame killer.) Vaccination against Lyme’s in childhood is in the region of 100% effective, but the disease can fairly easily be treated by antibiotics if caught early, and with more difficulty if it gets a grip.

As with viruses in general, HPV and AIDS cannot be treated effectively. Lyme’s is a spirochete/spirochaete, not a virus. There are a great many HPVs, two of which are high risk for cervical cancer and they are very common sexually transmitted diseases. HPVs may cause several other cancers - HPV 16 and HPV 18 cause around 70% of cervical cancers.

The immune system is very complicated. Understanding remains rather limited. As said above, some diseases are linked (without detail or certainty to autoimmune diseases). As vaccines work primarily by giving the body an experience (usually of part of the surface molecules) of the disease vecto, it is possible that a vaccine may cause autoimmune diseases. So, it becomes a calculation and a race to accumulate better understanding of autoimmune problems. Lyme is (at present) nowhere near as prevalent as HPV, and it tends to be localised. It is also easier to detect/suspect.

Meanwhile, the world is stuffed with (probably hundreds of thousands) of new man-made chemicals, and people are living much longer, in part due to modern medicine. Many killer diseases of childhood are no long a grave problem, especially in the west. HPV is a problem. If the numbers being bandied about are correct, then HPV vaccination is a sane, if expensive precaution.

The estimated 1 in 136 lifetime risk of a female developing cervical cancer cancer in the UK a serious concern, and maybe it is also continuing to spread. I know of no serious claims of autoimmune reactions to HPV - yet.

cervical cancer vaccines, cervarix and gardasil

“On its web site, the FDA states that Cervarix has been shown to be effective at preventing cervical cancer associated with HPV 16 and HPV 18 in teens and women up to age 25 who hadn't been exposed to those HPV strains.

“In the vaccine's clinical trials, participants got three doses of Cervarix or a placebo over six months. Both groups had similar rates of serious adverse events or death, the FDA notes. "No patterns indicating a potential safety signal were discernible among the serious adverse outcomes," the FDA states.
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“The FDA approved the first HPV vaccine, Gardasil, in June 2006 for use in girls and women ages 9 to 26. Gardasil targets four strains of HPV: HPV 6, HPV 11, HPV 16, and HPV 18.” [Quoted from webmd.com]

In other words, Gardasil targets four strains, including two involved in genital warts, while Cervarix only targets the two main strains implicated in cervical cancer. As you can see from the second paragraph above, according to tests the rates of adverse effects for the placebo and the vaccination are indistinguishable.

on human papillomavirus

hpv is suspected in several cancers - there are over 100 identified hpvs effecting humans

“However, HPV infection sometimes persists for many years. Such infections are the primary cause of cervical cancer. HPVs may also play a role in cancers of the anus, vulva, vagina, penis, as well as oropharyngeal cancer.”

email email_abelard [at] abelard.org

the address for this document is https://www.abelard.org/briefings/flu_influenza_pandemics.php

1085 words
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