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can-rattling for beginners - georgia part 2

The West should remember, when dealing with Russia, the words of Winston Churchill:

“In war, resolution; in defeat, defiance; in victory, magnamimity.”

To read and listen to the fossil media, you might think that Russia is some mighty monster that should strike fear into the hearts of any sane person.

Instead, as you will see from the figures below, Russia is a pygmy, the remains of a dying Socialist empire, rattling its cans in frustration and defensive pride. Russia is a paranoid remnant with immense resources and an overblown military beset by problems on every side. There is an expansive China of more than a billion souls with inadequate resources gradually encroaching in the Russian orient. Many fractious and unstable Islamic crazies are to the south.

Russia is suffering a demographic meltdown, while the great concern of the advanced world must be whether Russia’s politicians can or will meet their agreements and responsibilities. Is Russia a reliable partner acting under the rule of law, or a criminal regime bent on international murder and the theft of assets developed by the likes of BP and Shell, with inadequate rule of law?

Russia’s only rational future is in cooperation with great might of the advanced democracies. Without the West, Russia is a vulnerable and dying dinosaur. For all the bluster, Russia needs the West at least as much as the West needs to stabilise and modernise Russia. As you see from the article below, the West is steadily drawing Russia into the orbit of NATO. NATO is no threat to Russia, however much Russian politicians may posture for their home audience or for the paranoid fantasies of an insecure ex-KGB man. There will be no resurgent Russian empire, there will be no return of the Cold War. The modern world of the twenty-first century is a whole new place.

Modern problems are far more concerned with burgeoning populations, the looming end of fossil fuels and how to produce sufficient food, not which empire will advance its borders. Empires are no longer economically rational and the bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki made war between advanced societies irrational.

“ "In recent years, Russia has sought to integrate into the diplomatic, political, economic and security structures of the 21st century," US President George W. Bush said last week. "Now Russia is putting its aspirations at risk by taking actions in Georgia that are inconsistent with the principles of those institutions."

“A NATO spokeswoman said ministers would deliver "a very clear message of solidarity to Georgia."

“Meanwhile, reports regarding Russia's military activity in Georgia were contradictory. US officials said Monday that Russia had moved short-range missile launchers into South Ossetia since fighting ceased there last week and that there was no sign of a significant pullback of its troops from Georgia.

“Russia's defense ministry, however, on Monday announced the start of its withdrawal. The Russian NATO envoy, Dmitry Rogozin, on Tuesday told France's Inter radio station that troops were pulling out of Georgia.”
—
“One obvious repercussion may well involve the NATO-Russia Council (NRC).

“Established at a summit in Rome in 2002, the NRC has often been defended by NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer as "a valuable forum for dialogue to resolve complex political issues.

“The NRC has also led NATO and Russia to cooperate on a practical level, such as with joint military exercises. But that cooperation looks increasingly at risk.” [Quoted from dw-world.de]

Russia has more than twice the population of Britain, but their economies are about the same size.

Notes:

• While Russia claims to be recognising the independence of South Ossetia, I see no mention of including the greater proportion of Ossetia, north of Georgia.
• These areas are crossroads with many remaining and competing minorities and enclaves, lending themselves to Russian and Georgian imperial manipulation.