for
those who don’t understand the uk to irish loans
Just as UK banks were heavily enmeshed
with Irish loans, so France is
heavily exposed to Greek loans.
“French President Nicolas Sarkozy says his country's
banks would help Greece by giving it 30 years to repay.
“France's Figaro newspaper said banks are ready
to relend - or roll over - 70% of loans they hold.
“The plan is being worked out by the French government
and bankers.”
This sort of action makes far more
sense than direct ECB intervention, which incidentally
is against the EUSSR arrangements/law.
related material
EMU (European
Monetary Union) and inflation – a civil liberty
issue
the web address for this article is
https://www.abelard.org/news/economics042011.php#uk_2_ireland_loans_270611
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balls
and lies and still more balls
Recommended scan.
“Demonstrable junk. Osborne has simply adopted
the Brown/Darling deficit reduction plan (slow cuts
spread over four years), and yanked it up a notch. In
total, he’s cutting less than 1 per cent a year
more than Brown/Darling’s published plans. But
Balls makes this sound far more dramatic saying Labour
would have "halved the deficit" over the parliament
and Osborne would have "eliminated the structural
deficit". This makes it sound as if Osborne is
going twice as fast. In fact, the "deficit"
and the "structural deficit" are two different
things. This is the "false comparator" device
beloved of the Brown era. The "deficit" is
straightforward: the difference between spending and
taxes. The "structural deficit" is an estimate
of what the deficit would be if the economy had recovered.
The first is fact, the second is opinion. But the OBR
has published its estimate of the structural deficit.
Seeing as Darling published his five-year plan, we can
compare it with what Osborne proposes:
“So, the honest comparison? Labour’s economic
plan was to cut the deficit by 61 per cent over five
years, and Osborne now proposes to cut it by 74 per
cent. Or Labour would have cut the structural deficit
by 66 per cent against Osborne’s 87 per cent.
This is the only honest way of quantifying the difference
between the two. Balls intends to mislead — hoping
no one will make the above calculation. He later tries
this fake comparison again: nice and simple, so broadcasters
can understand it. “George Osborne is trying to
eliminate the deficit rather than halve it”. It’s
rubbish. There was no fork in the road. Osborne is heading
only slightly faster in the same direction.”
the web address for this article is
https://www.abelard.org/news/economics042011.php#deficit_structural_deficit_170611
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on inflation
- From a correspondent:
- What was the point of tasking the Bank of England
with keeping inflation below 2% ? They have manifestly
failed, and admit that it is not within their capabilities.
So far from being 2%, inflation is now running at 4.5%.
The inflation is a hangover from
fascist ‘New’ Labour. Inflation is a lagging
indicator. On average, the lag is about 12-18 months,
but can be considerably longer.
There is, in fact, a reining in of inflation at present [see
Sectoral
breakdown of aggregate M4 and M4 lending. The
blue line on the first graph is the relevant one.]
It’s a very fine judgement.
The patient was rushed to hospital in mid-2008, when Brown
the Clown was sacked and replaced by Mervyn King, and with
front men appointed via Mandelslime [Mandelson].
A new management team was then appointed
by the bank, led by top surgeons, David Cameron and George
Osborne.
The patient remains in a coma and on
life support. What matters most now is what is known technically
as ‘the will-to-live’ of the patient.
Here is the latest M4 graph:
related material
the mechanics
of inflation: The great government swindle and how it
works
the web address for this article is
https://www.abelard.org/news/economics042011.php#on_inflation_170511
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on
the bank-government symbiosis
“Why did the Brussels-Frankfurt extortion racket
force these countries to accept the money along with
"recovery" plans that would inevitably fail?
Because they needed to please the tax-guzzling banks,
which might otherwise refuse to turn up at the next
Spanish, Belgian, Italian or even French bond auction.
“Unfortunately for this financial and political
cartel, their plan isn't working. Already under this
scheme, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are ruined. They
will never be able to save and grow fast enough to pay
back the debts with which Brussels has saddled them
in the name of saving them.”
—
“This is not just about economics. People feel
betrayed. In Ireland, the incoming parties to the new
government promised to hold senior bondholders responsible,
but under pressure they succumbed, leaving their voters
with a sense of disenfranchisement. The elites in Brussels
have said that Finland must honor its commitments to
its European partners, but Brussels is silent on whether
national politicians should honor their commitments
to their own voters.””
Interesting to see selected parts of
the fossil media steadily being forced to print the truth.
I see Mount Etna is seething. It’s
heating up under the seats of the EUSSR time-serving PIIGies?
related material
EMU (European
Monetary Union) and inflation – a civil liberty
issue
the web address for this article is
https://www.abelard.org/news/economics042011.php#bank_government_symbiosis_160511
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greece
moves to bankruptcy - in ireland, anger rises
“...the IMF was forced by the obduracy of Geithner
and the spinelessness, or worse, of the Irish to lend
their imprimatur, and €30 billion of their capital,
to a deal that its negotiators privately admit will
end in Irish bankruptcy. Lending to an insolvent state,
which has no hope of reducing its debt enough to borrow
in markets again, breaches the most fundamental rule
of the IMF, and a heated debate continues there over
the legality of the Irish deal.”
—
“Irish insolvency is now less a matter of economics
than of arithmetic. If everything goes according to
plan, as it always does, Ireland’s government
debt will top €190 billion by 2014, with another
€45 billion in Nama and €35 billion in bank
recapitalisation, for a total of €270 billion,
plus whatever losses the Irish Central Bank has made
on its emergency lending. Subtracting off the likely
value of the banks and Nama assets, Namawinelake (by
far the best source on the Irish economy) reckons our
final debt will be about €220 billion, and I think
it will be closer to €250 billion, but these differences
are immaterial: either way we are talking of a Government
debt that is more than €120,000 per worker, or
60 per cent larger than GNP.”
A complex, but thoughtful, article - read on.
related material
EMU (European
Monetary Union) and inflation – a civil liberty
issue
the web address for this article is
https://www.abelard.org/news/economics042011.php#greece_ireland_eu_110511
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fortunately
uk inflation remains below 5%, and don’t worry about
population
“World food prices are 36% above levels of a
year ago, driven by problems in the Middle East and
North Africa, and remain volatile, the bank said.
“That has pushed 44 million people into poverty
since last June.
“A further 10% rise would push 10m more below
the extreme poverty line of $1.25 (76p) a day, the bank
said.
“And it warned that a 30% cost hike in the price
of staples could lead to 34 million more poor.”
—
“Food price changes Q1 2010 to Q1 2011
- Maize +74%
Wheat +69%
Palm oil +55%
Soybeans +36%
Beef +30%
Rice -2%”
related material
the mechanics
of inflation: The great government swindle and how it
works
land
conservation and food production
the web address for this article is
https://www.abelard.org/news/economics042011.php#food_prices_inflation_150411
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new
report on uk banking
Executive
summary of this report. On a quick scan it looks like
empty blather and waffle.
“Achieving greater loss-absorbency requires,
first, that banks hold more equity relative to their
assets and, second, that creditors, not taxpayers, take
losses if necessary. On equity capital, an important
step is the 7% baseline ratio of equity to risk-weighted
assets in the Basel III agreement. The international
community is considering augmenting this for systemically
important banks. In the Commission’s view, the
available evidence and analysis suggests that all such
banks should hold equity of at least 10%, together with
genuinely loss-absorbent debt. That would strike a better
balance between increasing the cost of lending and reducing
the frequency and/or impact of financial crises.
“The Commission’s view is that the 10%
equity baseline should become the international standard
for systemically important banks, and that it should
apply to large UK retail banking operations in any event.
Subject to that safeguard for UK retail banking, and
recognising that wholesale and investment banking markets
are international, the Commission believes that the
capital standards applying to the wholesale and investment
banking businesses of UK.”
All very pious.
“Ring-fencing a bank’s UK retail banking
activities could have several advantages. It would make
it easier and less costly to sort out banks if they
got into trouble, by allowing different parts of the
bank to be treated in different ways. Vital retail operations
could be kept running while commercial solutions –
reorganisation or wind-down – were found for other
operations. It would help shield UK retail activities
from risks arising elsewhere within the bank or wider
system, while preserving the possibility that they could
be saved by the rest of the bank. And in combination
with higher capital standards it could curtail taxpayer
exposure and thereby sharpen commercial disciplines
on risk taking.”
More piety that won’t work.
the web address for this article is
https://www.abelard.org/news/economics042011.php#uk_bank_report_120411
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