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shifting global
weather patterns


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a briefing
document

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click to see all the indexShifting global weather patterns is one in a series of briefing documents investigating the indicators, science, analysis and argument surrounding global warming..
One of a grouping of documents on global concerns at abelard.org.
On energy
1 Replacing fossil fuels—the scale of the problem
2 Nuclear power - is nuclear power really really dangerous?
3 Replacements for fossil fuels—what can be done about it?
3a Biofuels   3b Photovoltaics (solar cells)
3c Non-pv (photovoltaic) solar technology
3d Tar sands and shale oil    3e Wind power
5 Energy economics—how long do we have?
6 Ionising radiation and health—risk analysis
7 Transportable fuels    7a Fuel cells
8 Distributed energy systems and micro-generation
8a Geothermal systems and heat exchangers
8b Combined energy systems
8c Energy storage
9 Fossil fuel disasters
10 Books on energy replacements with reviews

On global warming
4 Global warming
4a Anthropogenic global warming, and ocean acidity
4b Energy pricing and greenwash
4c How atmospheric chemistry and physics effects global warming
4d Antarctica melting ice, sea levels, water and weather implications
4e Gathering data to test global warming
4f Arctic melting ice, sea levels
4g Shifting global weather patterns
4h Dendroclimatology


On housing and making living systems ecological

Tectonics: tectonic plates - floating on the surface of a cauldron

sustainable futures briefing documents

click to see all the indexIndex
tropics altering position much faster than predicted
water pressure in the western usa, and shrinking glaciers
and in iceland
and in china
growing melting in greenland



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tropics altering position much faster than predicted

“Earth's tropical belt is expanding much faster than expected, and that could bring more storms to the temperate zone and drier weather to parts of the world that are already dry, climate scientists reported on Sunday.

“Remarkably, the tropics appear to have already expanded -- during only the last few decades of the 20th century -- by at least the same margin as models predict for this century," the scientists said in the current edition of Nature Geoscience.”

“Tropical temperatures are warm, and it rains a lot, with little seasonal or day-to-day change. The subtropics, by contrast, are generally dry. If the warm, wet tropical climate is spreading poleward, the dry subtropic climate may head for the poles too.

“Those dry subtropical bands could include some of the most heavily populated places on Earth, the scientists said: the Mediterranean, the US Southwest, northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa and parts of South America.”

“Those storm tracks are linked with the position of the jet stream, which is one way we use to delineate the width of the tropics," Seidel said by telephone from NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory outside Washington. "The jet streams are moving poleward, and so, presumably, would the storm tracks.”

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And from the recent past:

“A thought came to me, when I was reading in the papers about the scandals of the regional government: scientists say the palm tree line, that is the climate favorable to the palm tree form of vegetation, is creeping northward at the rate, I think, of five hundred meters every year . It's rising like mercury in a thermometer.”

Sciascia, 1961.

water pressure in the western usa, and shrinking glaciers

“One of the United States' most beautiful landmarks may soon have to change its name. Glacier National Park in Montana, which once boasted 150 of the spectacular rivers of ice, is now down to 25, and the most recent data show that the remainder "may be gone in our lifetimes," an ecologist said here yesterday at a meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Other than the aesthetic loss, the disappearance of glaciers across the American West could cause huge problems for a regional population that is 85% dependent on mountain water and already coping with shortages.”

“ [...] The latest surveys conducted by the organization show that the glaciers are, on average, 1.7 meters thinner each year--a decline much more rapid than expected [...] ”

“ [...] Also contributing is carbon black, known more commonly as soot, which continually rains down on the glaciers but tends to concentrate on the surface of the ice. By the calculations of his research team, Painter said, soot increases heat absorption from the sun's rays by 43%. That provides "yet another reason" to limit carbon black from industrial emissions, [...] ” [Quoted from sciencenow.sciencemag.org]

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“Since 1950, the Sierra snowpack has decreased by about 20 percent, the temperature in the Rocky Mountains has gone up 3 degrees and spring water flow in the Columbia River has decreased significantly.

“ "These signals are the same no matter where you go in the West," marine physicist Tim Barnett of Scripps Institution of Oceanography said Tuesday at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco. "We've got a real serious problem."

“By scaling down global climate models to bring greater detail of the region, a team of scientists led by Barnett and atmospheric scientist Ben Santer of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory projected these trends into the future and found a grim picture for the West. By about 2040, the Colorado Rockies will be nearly barren of snow as early as April 1 each year. And a similar story will play out in the Sierra.” [Quoted from mercurynews.com]

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“ "About 50 percent of the fresh water consumed by people worldwide comes from mountains, so the rate at which snowpack is disappearing is worrying, said Daniel Fagre, an ecologist who works for the US Geological Survey in Glacier National Park in Montana.

“Fagre said only about 25 of 150 glaciers that once dotted Glacier National Park remain. Initial data projected that, for the first time in more than 1,000 years, the park would be without ice floes by 2030, but more recent estimates project the icebergs may be lost even before then, Fagre said.

“ "The glaciers of Glacier National Park will be gone in our lifetimes," Fagre said, [...] ” [Quoted from planetark.org]

and in iceland:

“ "It's nice to have plants around, but well, it's not good. It gets better in Iceland, but the rest of the world sees the bad part," she says.

“Once the measuring tape is rolled up, Jonsson heads back to his truck. He checks a clipboard to figure out exactly how far the glacier has retreated: 41 meters, the largest retreat he has ever seen. That's almost half the length of a football field in a single year.

This isn't happy news for Solveig Thorvaldsdottir.

“ "I mean, what are we going to call our country when the ice all melts? We might as well call it lava land," she says.” [Quoted from npr.org]

and in china:

“High altitude glaciers in China's remote west have shrunk by up to 18 percent over the last five years due to global warming, state media said on Friday, citing preliminary results from an on-going survey.”

"Global warming has led to an increase in the average temperature in the western area of China over the past few decades. This has caused the glacial shrinking, a thawing of frozen earth and worsening arid conditions,[...] ” [Quoted from planetark.org]

For more detailed information.

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growing melting in greenland

“Scientist Ian Joughin says that in the past few years, Jakobshavn's speed has doubled.

“ "That's putting about twice as much ice into the fjord as a decade ago ... and twice as much into the ocean," he says.”

“The station has to be re-anchored into the ice because Greenland's entire ice sheet is moving. Joughin, from the University of Washington, pulls out his GPS unit and finds that the region has slid more than 100 yards closer to the ocean during the past year.

“He also measures a length of fishing line he had sunk straight down into the ice the previous summer to see how much of the ice has melted away. A lot of the line he had buried is lying on the surface.

“ "Wow," he says. "It's a meter and a half of melt since last year. … Almost five feet."

“Greenland's ice sheet deforms constantly, like pancake batter flowing on a griddle. Each year, more snow piles up in the middle, and each year, more ice slides off into the sea or melts away. At the moment, Greenland's melt water increases global sea level by about a quarter of an inch per decade. If that melt increases as the world warms, a melting Greenland will eventually eat away the shorelines of the world.”

related material
the melting of glaciers
global warming
Arctic melting ice, sea levels

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Related further documents
On energy
1 Replacing fossil fuels—the scale of the problem
2 Nuclear power - is nuclear power really really dangerous?
3 Replacements for fossil fuels—what can be done about it?
3a Biofuels   3b Photovoltaics (solar cells)
3c Non-pv (photovoltaic) solar technology
3d Tar sands and shale oil    3e Wind power
5 Energy economics—how long do we have?
6 Ionising radiation and health—risk analysis
7 Transportable fuels    7a Fuel cells
8 Distributed energy systems and micro-generation
8a Geothermal systems and heat exchangers
8b Combined energy systems
8c Energy storage
9 Fossil fuel disasters
10 Books on energy replacements with reviews

On global warming
4 Global warming
4a Anthropogenic global warming, and ocean acidity
4b Energy pricing and greenwash
4c How atmospheric chemistry and physics effects global warming
4d Antarctica melting ice, sea levels, water and weather implications
4e Gathering data to test global warming
4f Arctic melting ice, sea levels
4g Shifting global weather patterns
4h Dendroclimatology


On housing and making living systems ecological

Tectonics: tectonic plates - floating on the surface of a cauldron

sustainable futures briefing documents



email abelard email abelard at abelard.org

© abelard, 2007,28 december

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the address for this document is http://www.abelard.org/briefings/shifting_global_patterns.php

1245 words
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