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this should be widely read - ambrose evans-pritchard again

“Protectionism beckons as leaders push world into Depression”

“In Europe, policy is still on deflationary settings, with protestors in Athens fighting back against austerity measures.”

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the savings mountain to rise yet further next year as the governments of Europe, Britain, and the US tighten belts, in unison, by up to 2pc of GDP.”

While I agree with descriptions, and some of the fears, I do not agree with all the timorous conclusions.

The best possible action would be to undo the euro - fat chance.

Further, I do not trust protectionism. If places like China wish to sell us useful goods at knock-down prices, that should not harm us in the long run unless we act foolishly.

Nor is enough attention being paid to the increasing pools of savings.

related material
the foolishness of the european markets & the eurozone regime
EMU (European Monetary Union) and inflation – a civil liberty issue



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woe woe woe - the world will end in 285 days

Run run, the loonies are coming.

“The definition of a Debt Wall is the point at which total world government deficit spending exceeds 9%, and thereby forces interest rates to rise above the point of affordability for sovereign government borrowing.”

“On current projections of economic growth and government spending, the Debt Wall will be hit by July 31, 2012.”

World sovereign deficits, or the world capacity to fund government deficits. Source: IMF
World sovereign deficits, or the world capacity to fund government deficits. Source: IMF



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trichet postures - don’t these dumbos know that if the north keeps subsidising the south

On the mis-handling of national deficits in Europe.

The North will eventually go bankrupt as well.

This is as Harold Wislon subsidising British Leyland out of other people’s taxes while the economy corrodes into rust.

Some people never learn.

“History teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they have exhausted all other alternatives.”
 Abba Eban, 1970



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the impending ecb crash continues to speed up

The euro has dropped more than 8 centimes in fortnight (about 6%) and it still a long way to fall.

“It is not clear who is in the stronger position in the latest round of brinkmanship between Greece and the German bloc. If pushed too far, Greece can set off a powderkeg. The International Monetary Fund says European banks are highly vulnerable and need to raise their capital by €200bn. Many of the weakest are in Germany.

“The Greek crisis has spilled over into Cyprus, raising the risk that a fourth country will soon need an EU bail-out. The island’s finance minister Kikis Kazamias said he is mulling a request for help from the ECB after 10-year Cypriot bonds rose above 13pc. "We do not have the luxury of being choosy about who is going to lend to us," he said.

“While Cyprus is too small to be systemically important, its banking system is roughly nine times GDP with liabilities of €156bn, according to Fitch Ratings. This is equivalent to Iceland before it blew up. Cypriot banks have 40pc of their assets in Greece, and hold a significant chunks of Greek debt.”

related material
EMU (European Monetary Union) and inflation – a civil liberty issue

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the foolishness of the european markets & the eurozone regime

  • european markets showing signs of a new panic crash as the euronuts cling to idiocy

    16:30 UK time, Mon 05 Oct.
    Percentage drop in indices

    London -3.10
    FTSE 250 -2.48
    FTSE 350 -3.01
    FTSE All Share -2.97
    FTSE Techmark -2.50
    FTSEurofirst 300 -3.68
    DJ Eurostoxx 50 -4.49
    Amsterdam AEX -3.88
    Frankfurt Dax -4.88
    MDax -4.52
    SDax -4.18
    TecDax -4.02
    Paris Cac 40 -4.03
    Brussels Bel 20 -4.09
    Madrid IBEX -4.24
    Zurich SMI -3.68
    SPI -3.70

    And no USA market to steady the nerves (closed for Labour Day).

  • even prince hermann otto zu solms-hohensolms-lich says greece is sliding down the pan of life

    From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - a fellow who only very rarely writes the usual incessant leftist fossil media econobabble.

    “Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing-director, said the outlook had darkened suddenly over the summer.”

    Ho ho ho - yeah, she has a new hat to appease.

    And this one is more for the wonks:

    “Italy must redeem €14.6bn of debt this week and €62bn by the end of September, the highest ever in a single month. It must roll over €170bn by December...”

    “If democratic legitimacy is violated "in the course of the European integration", Germany must be prepared "in the worst case, even to refuse further participation in the European Union." ”

    “If they [Germany’s constitutional court] rule in any significant way that the EFSF itself breaches Lisbon’s `no bail-out’ clause, or even that Germany cannot participate until the Treaty is changed, market confidence in monetary union will collapse instantly.

    “Whatever the court does, the simmering revolt in the Bundestag over recent weeks lays bare the salient strategic fact that Germany is not about to embrace fiscal union or quadruple the EFSF to €2 trillion, as deemed necessary by City analysts and EU officials to stabilize Italy and Spain. Nor will it pay for a third Greek rescue.

    “The implication of this may become clear very soon since the Greek rescue programme is disintegrating. As the Greek parliament’s watchdog admitted, the debt dynamic is "out of control". Public debt will reach 172pc of GDP next year....”



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