latest changes & additions at abelard.org link to document abstracts quotations at abelard.org, with source document where relevant      latest news headlines at abelard's news and comment zone Children and television violence link to short briefings documents about abelard and abelard.org
socialism, sociology, supporting documents described France zone at abelard.org - another France economics and money zone at abelard.org - government swindles and how to transfer money on the net   Energy - beyond fossil fuels click for abelard's child education zone visit abelard's gallery technology zone at abelard.org: how to survive and thrive on the web
New translation, the Magna Carta

oppression, poverty and life expectancy

by the auroran sunset

a briefing document

back to abelard's front page

site map

 
oppression, poverty and life expectancy is part of a group of briefing documents on the socially destructive amorality common in cult socialism and some other social domains
ends and means and the individual related item: the just war
authoritarianism and liberty socialist religions
denialism psycho-babble
the nature of cult recruitment - jihadi bombers    
categories, analogy and reification drugs

Index

introduction
poverty: the world’s biggest killer
oppression causes poverty
socialism kills big
endnotes


advertising
disclaimer

Poverty is the world’s number one killer. Oppression is the world’s number one cause of poverty. Meanwhile, whenever socialism gain sufficient power, they not only impoverish the victims, but also murder wholesale, invade their neighbours and spread their misery as far as they allowed.

poverty: the world’s biggest killer

Poverty is well known to be far and away the greatest factor in Loss of Life Expectancy (LLE) [1]. In other words, if you want to make people live longer, the single best thing you can do is make them richer:

“The data on poverty are truly impressive. In one study, the Chicago area was divided into sections based on socioeconomic class. The difference in life expectancy between the highest- and lowest-class sections was 9 years for white males, 7 years for white females, and nearly 10 years for nonwhites of both sexes. [...]

“There is also an abundance of data from foreign sources. In one study, Montreal was divided into sections by socioeconomic class, and the difference in life expectancy between the highest-and lowest-class sections was 10.8 years for men and 7.3 years for women. A Canadian Ministry of Health Study in 21 cities divided the population into five equal parts (quintiles) by income, and found a difference in life expectancy between the highest and lowest quintiles to be 6 years for men and 3 years for women. (Note that the 20% with lowest income would hardly be classed as poverty cases.) A study in Finland divided the nation into four "social groups" and found a 7 year difference in life expectancy between the highest and lowest. A study in France found that professional and managerial men live 4 years longer than white collar workers, 9 years longer than skilled laborers, and 13 years longer than unskilled laborers.

“Within technologically advanced nations there are effective programs to provide poor people with reasonable medical care and an adequate diet, but such programs are much fewer and less effective on an international basis. This leads to much larger variations of life expectancy with socioeconomic level, as evidenced by correlations between life expectancy and per capita gross national product for various nations. In well-to-do countries like the United States, Western Europe, Australia, and Japan, life expectancy is about 75 years, whereas life expectancy in a sample of other countries is 72 years in Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Rumania; 67 years in Mexico and Central America; 64 years in Turkey, Brazil, and Thailand; 59 years in India, Iran, and Egypt; about 45 years in most central African countries; and 38 years in Afghanistan and Gambia. Lest these differences be ascribed to racial factors, it should be noted that Japanese have 10 years more life expectancy than other East Asians, and blacks in the United States have more than 20 years longer life expectancy than African blacks. The history of white versus black life expectancy in the United States is illuminating here: in 1900, there was a 18-year difference (50 years versus 32 years), whereas it is now reduced to 6 years, reflecting the improving socioeconomic status of blacks.”

Here is a plot of "Life Expectancy at Birth in Years" against "GDP per Capita in PPP adjusted US Dollars" for 49 representative nations:

A graph showing the correlation between poverty and low life expectancy around the world. Image credit: the auroran sunset.
[Data taken from the CIA World Factbook, Feb. 2007. Life expectancy list, 2015. GDP per capita list, 2015.]

Be aware that you can never trust government statistics. You should be especially wary of statistics from dictatorships, and even more especially wary of statistics from socialist dictatorships, for whom lying for the cause is mainstream dogma.

However - despite the likely gaming of life expectancy statistics in Cuba, North Korea and others - there is a clear high correlation between increasing GDP per Capita and increasing life expectancy. The R2 [or ] [2] figure of 0.6071 means that 60.71% of the differences in life expectancy can be predicted just by knowing the difference in GDP per capita!

Note that the logarithmic relationship [3] - “Life Expectancy = 7.059 Ln(GDP per Capita) + 6.395” - means that a little bit more money makes a much bigger difference to the life expectancy of the poor than to that of the rich.

Notice also that by a GDP per capita of $13,000, the life expectancy has already reached over 73 years old. This reflects research suggesting that “happiness” doesn’t increase much as income rises above $13,000.click to return to the index

oppression causes poverty

There is a similar causal relationship between freedom and wealth, or put differently, between oppression and poverty. Here is a plot of “GDP per Capita in PPP adjusted US Dollars” against “Combined Average Freedom House Rating” for 73 representative countries:

A graph showing the correlation between oppression and poverty around the world. Image credit: the auroran sunset.
[GDP per capita data taken from the CIA World Factbook, Feb. 2007. GDP per capita table. Freedom data taken the Freedom House report for 2006. Combined average ratings table.]

Note that in the Freedom House rating, 1 represents “most free” and 7 represents “most repressive”. There is a clear high correlation between the amount of repression and decrease in GDP per capita. The R2 of 0.6916 means that 69.16% of the (negative) changes in GDP per capita can be predicted just by knowing the repressive index for country’s regime!

Note that the logarithmic relationship [3] - “GDP per Capita = -14964 Ln(Amount of Oppression) + 29379” - means that a little loss of freedom in a relatively free country has a far greater negative effect on wealth than a little loss of freedom in a relatively oppressive country. Alternatively, you need to introduce far more freedom into a repressive country to make a difference, than you do in an already relatively free country.

This explains why it has taken so long for the countries of the Soviet Bloc and East Asia to recover from socialism, while relatively minor reductions of government power under Reagan and Thatcher had such major wealth generating effects. It also explains how socialist governments manage to so quickly impoverish rich countries, and how the USA has managed to stay so consistently richer than Europe. Freedom is not just the sum of its parts.click to return to the index

socialism kills big

Meanwhile, socialist dictatorships kill far more than any other. They also have a much greater tendancy to invade their neighbours and to export their disfunctional dogmas.

Here is a small selection of socialist mass murderers and their main crimes:

Socialist Mass Murderers [4]
Hitler and German Socialism 15 million murdered outright, with another 19 million killed stopping his attempts to take over the world. Hitler invaded Austria, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Denmark, Norway, Holland, Belgium, France, Yugoslavia, Greece, Crete, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Russia, and a few other places.
Stalin and Russian Socialism 20 million murdered outright. The Soviet socialists also exported ‘revolution’ to tens of countries around the world, with inevitable results. The Soviets also directly invaded Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan.
Mao and Chinese Socialism 10 million murdered outright. Another 30 million killed by a famine directly resulting from Mao’s policies. China, like Russia, exported and continues to export revolution around the world, with similar results. The Chinese also directly invaded Tibet, India and Vietnam, as well as constantly threatening invasion of most of its other neighbours. The Chinese are arming and funding the Islamist Sudanese government currently engaged in an ongoing genocide believed to have killed at least 2 million people so far.
Castro and Cuban Socialism Castro is an unusual socialist in mostly murdering people outside ‘his’ country. He was directly involved in almost all the socialist revolutions (failed and successful) in Central America, South America and Africa. A count of his murders would have to take into account those killed by socialism in Congo, Yemen, Eritrea, Egypt, Syria, Somalia, Libya, Algeria, Ethiopia, Iraq, Chad, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Honduras, Argentina, Uruguay, Guyana, Grenada, Dominican Republic, Colombia, Chile, Bolivia, Haiti, Venezuela, Peru, Angola, and probably a few others! Castro also helps Islamist murderers, especially the PLO/Fatah. He is almost certainly the fourth most successful socialist mass-murderer. Castro’s murdering sprees were of course funded and armed by the Soviet socialists. Castro has of course also murdered many Cubans.
Kim-il Song & Kim Jong-il and North Korean Socialism 1.7 million murdered outright in North and South Korea. Kim-il Sung also invaded South Korea. Another 2.8 million were killed in stopping that attempted conquest. Kim Jong-il’s famines have caused another 3.5 million deaths. His starvation of ‘his’ people is ongoing.
Ho Chi Minh and North Vietnamese Socialism 3.5 million killed - approximately half in the war to stop their socialist invasion, and half two years after the US coalition left and the socialists once more invaded and enslaved the South. The Vietnamese also invaded Cambodia. Approximately half a million “boat people” fled socialist Vietnam, many died in the attempt.
Pol Pot and Cambodian Socialism 1.65 million murdered outright in a period of three years. In that short time, the Cambodian socialists managed to invade Thailand, Vietnam and Laos - all of its direct neighbours. Their democide [5] was stopped they were in turn invaded by socialist Vietnam!
Saddam Hussein and Iraqi Socialism 300,000 murdered outright, including the use of poison gases and biological weapons on the Kurds and Shias, and the draining of the southern wetlands. 1 million killed in his invasion of Iran. Saddam also invaded Kuwait, threated Saudi Arabia, funded terrorism against Israel and caused two of the worst environmental disasters of modern times.
Idi Amin and Ugandan Socialism 300,000 murdered outright. Amin exported terror across Africa and the Middle East. The Ugandans also directly invaded Tanzania.
The Derg and Ethiopian Socialism 1.4 million dead, 1 million of that by famine caused by the Derg’s “scientific socialism”. Unusually the Derg didn’t manage to invade any neighbours, mostly because they spent their reign constantly fighting to keep their regions under control.
The MPLA and Angolan Socialism 550,000 dead in decades of war, attempting to bring the ‘revolution’ to the people. Like with Ethiopia’s Derg, their uncooperative victims meant that they had little chance to invade their neighbours.
Gaddafi and Libyan Socialism Gaddafi runs one of the most repressive regimes in the world and has done so for decades. His regime is so repressive, that it is hard to get any sort of estimate for how many he has murdered within Libya. Gaddafi played a subbordinate role in almost all of Castro’s African revolutions. He was also one of the most blatant sponsors of Islamist terrorism worldwide.
Mussolini and Italian Socialism As well as cooperating with Hitler’s mass murder and invasions, Mussolini independently invaded Abyssinia (modern Ethiopia), killing 400,000 in the process.

click to return to the indexThis list is far from exhaustive, nor has socialism stopped killing around the world.

endnotes

1. Cohen give a nice simple explanation of LLE:-

“There are many ways of expressing quantified risk, but here we will use just one, the loss of life expectancy (LLE); i.e., the average amount by which one’s life is shortened by the risk under consideration. The LLE is the product of the probability for a risk to cause death and the consequences in terms of lost life expectancy if it does cause death. As an example, statistics indicate that an average 40-year-old person will live another 37.3 years, so if that person takes a risk that has a 1% chance of being immediately fatal, it causes an LLE of 0.373 years (0.01 x 37.3).

“It should be clear that this does not mean that he will die 0.373 years sooner as a result of taking this risk. But if 1,000 people his age took this risk, 10 might die immediately, having their lives shortened by 37.3 years, while the other 990 would not have their lives shortened at all. Hence, the average lost lifetime for the 1,000 people would be 0.373 years. This is the LLE from that risk.”

2. r is known as the “correlation coefficient”. r2 is known as the “coefficient of determination”.

3. A logarithmic relationship is the reverse of an exponential relationship. In an exponential relationship, things get bigger faster and faster. In a logarithmic relationship, things get bigger slower and slower.

For example, the following equation describes the simplest exponential relationship:-

y = 10x (1)

As x gets bigger, y gets bigger and y gets bigger faster and faster. Any positive feedback system, like a nuclear explosion, can be described by an exponential relationship.

x = log10 y (2)

Equation (2) means exactly the same as equation (1), except this time we care more about what happens to x. As y gets bigger, x gets bigger, but x gets bigger slower and slower. Equation (2) describes a logarithmic relationship. Any negative feedback system, like the way your body regulates your temperature, can be described by a logarithmic relationship.

Every exponential relationship can be looked as a logarithmic relationship, and vice versa.

Mathematicians often use a special number called ‘e’ (~2.72), instead of 10:

y = ex (3)
x = loge y = ln x (4)

e is used because it has some special properties that make the sums in calculus - mathematics for calculating the slopes of curves and the areas under curves - easier. The logarithm base e is sometimes called the “natural logarithm” and written as “ln”. When the base of the logarithm is not made explicit, for example “y = log x”, it is assumed to be a base 10 logarithm, as in equation (2).

4. Figures for the number of people killed by various socialist leaders are by necessity only estimates. This site is a fascinating, and very thorough, resource for those interested in where the various estimates come from.

5. Genocide refers to mass murder amongst a particular group/race of people. Democide refers to indiscriminate mass murder across acountry’s whole click to return to the indexpopulation.An example of a genocide was the mass killing of Tutsis by Hutus in Rwanda. An example of a democide was Mao’s Cultural Revolution.


advertising
disclaimer

 


advertising
disclaimer

 

email abelard email abelard at abelard.org

© the auroran sunset, 2007, 3 february

all rights reserved

the address for this document is http://www.abelard.org/briefings/oppression_poverty_life_expectancy.php

2377 words
prints as 6 A4 pages (on my printer and set-up)

latest abstracts briefings information   headlines resources interesting about abelard